International Policy Research Organisations

This chapter addresses the foundations of decision making with respect to climate impact, adaptation, and vulnerability (CIAV). The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) summarized methods for assessing CIAV (Carter et al., 2007), which we build on by surveying the broader literature relevant for decision making.

This chapter describes the information basis for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC Working Group II (WGII) and the rationale for its structure. As the starting point of WGII AR5, the chapter begins with an analysis of how the literature for the assessment has developed through time and proceeds with an overview of how the framing and content of the WGII reports have changed since the first IPCC report was published in 1990. The future climate scenarios used in AR5 are a marked change from those used in the Third (TAR, 2001) and Fourth (AR4, 2007) Assessment Reports; this shift is described here, along with the new AR5 guidance for communicating scientific uncertainty. The chapter provides a summary of the most relevant key findings from the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (IPCC, 2011), the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC, 2012), and the AR5 Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis) and AR5 Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change). Collectively these recent reports, new scenarios, and other advancements in climate change science set the stage for an assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability that could potentially overcome many of the limitations identified in the IPCC WGII AR4, particularly with respect to the human dimensions of climate change.

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems (Figure TS.1). The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential  benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation.

Le Résumé à l’intention des décideurs reprend les principales conclusions du Rapport spécial sur la gestion des risques de catastrophes et de phénomènes extrêmes pour les besoins de l’adaptation au changement climatique (SREX). Les auteurs du Rapport ont évalué les textes scientifiques traitant d’un éventail de questions, des liens entre l’évolution du climat et les phénomènes météorologiques et climatiques extrêmes (les «extrêmes climatiques») aux répercussions de ces phénomènes sur la société et le développement durable. L’analyse a porté sur les interactions des facteurs clima-tiques, environnementaux et humains qui peuvent occasionner des dommages et des catastrophes, sur les possibilités de gérer les risques associés à de tels dommages et catastrophes et sur le rôle majeur que les facteurs indépendants du climat jouent dans l’ampleur des impacts. Les notions essentielles dont il est question dans le Rapport SREX sont défi-nies dans l’encadré SPM.1.

Notes and Technical Details on Chapter 3 Figures

Annex I: Authors and expert reviewers

Annex II: Glossary of Terms

Annex III: Acronyms

Annex IV: List of Major IPCC Reports

In this chapter, case studies are used as examples of how to gain a better understanding of the risks posed by extreme weather and climate-related events while identifying lessons and best practices from past responses to such occurrences. Using the information in Chapters 1 to 8, it was possible to focus on particular examples to reflect the needs of the whole Special Report. The chosen case studies are illustrative of an important range of disaster risk reduction, disaster risk management, and climate change adaptation issues. They are grouped to examine representative types of extreme events, vulnerable regions, and methodological approaches.

This chapter focuses on the implications of changing climate extremes for development, and considers how disaster risk management and climate change adaptation together can contribute to a sustainable and resilient future. Changes in the frequency, timing, magnitude, and characteristics of extreme events pose challenges to the goals of reducing disaster risk and vulnerability, both in the present and in the future. Enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to cope with, adapt to, and shape change is central to building sustainable and resilient development pathways in the face of climate change. The concept for social-ecological systems recognizes the interdependence of social and ecological factors in the generation and management of risk, as well as in the pursuit of sustainable development. Despite 20 years on the policy agenda, sustainable development remains contested and elusive (Hopwood et al., 2005). However, within the context of climate change, it is becoming increasingly clear that the sustainability of humans on the Earth is closely linked to resilient social-ecological systems, which is influenced by social institutions, human agency, and human capabilities (Pelling, 2003; Bohle et al., 2009; Adger et al., 2011).

A need to cope with the risks associated with atmospheric processes (floods, droughts, cyclones, and so forth) has always been a fact of human life (Lamb, 1995). In more recent decades, extreme weather events have increasingly come to be associated with large-scale disasters and an increasing level of economic losses. Considerable experience has accumulated at the international (as well as local and national) level on ways of coping with or managing the risks. The same cannot be said for the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. These are new risks identified as possibilities or probabilities. Acceptance of climate change and its growing impacts has led to a stronger emphasis on the need for adaptation, as exemplified, for example, in the Bali Action Plan (adopted at the 13th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (UNFCCC, 2007a) and the Cancun Agreements of December 2010. The international community is thus faced with a contrast between a long record of managing disasters and the risks of ‘normal’ climate extremes, and the new problem of adaptation to anthropogenic climate change and its associated changes in variability and extremes. It has been asked how the comparatively new field of anthropogenic climate change adaptation (CCA) can benefit from the longer experience in disaster risk management (DRM). That question is a major focus of this Special Report.

This chapter assesses how countries are managing current and projected disaster risks, given knowledge of how risks are changing with observations and projections of weather and climate extremes, vulnerability and exposure, and impacts. It focuses on the design of national systems for managing such risks, the roles played by actors involved in the system, and the functions they perform, acknowledging that complementary  actions to manage risks are also taken at local and international level.