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Based on the Vuna report “Comparative Assessment of Selected Agricultural Weather Index Insurance Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa,” by Carlos E. Arce (August 2016).

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Scaling Up and Scalability: Concepts, Frameworks and Assessment,” by Pooniah Anandajayasekeram

Crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are typically less than half of yields in the developed world. With growing populations, and with climate change already beginning to put downward pressure on crop yields, intervention is urgently needed to enable farmers in SSA to produce more food. A key first step is to ensure that farmers have greater, and more reliable, access to high-quality seed of the modern varieties of climate smart crops that will best equip them to both feed themselves and produce food for barter or sale.

In many cases, breeding work for new varieties has been done. Farmers, however, are unaware of the new varieties, or seed of these varieties is not reaching them at meaningful levels. As a result, potential farmer yield and overall production levels for the target crops are not realised. The opportunity cost associated with this is significant and, without intervention, will grow as the effects of climate change increase.

- Drought is the single greatest climate risk faced by most farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa. In discussions of climate risk, it is crucial to distinguish between meteorological drought (lower-than-average annual or seasonal rainfall) and agricultural drought (insufficient water at critical stages of crop growth).

Global climate change models do a poor job predicting either type of drought (or flooding), and there appears to be little relationship between drought and rising levels of greenhouse gases. Drought and flooding are more closely correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which appear to predate global warming.

Agricultural production in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) is broadly characterised by high climate risks. Rainfall is variable in timing, amount, and intensity. Both drought and flooding are common. These challenges are magnified by the fact that the majority of farmers in this region face severe poverty, resource constraints, and food insecurity. More than 90% of these farmers are dependent on rainfed production. The rise in global greenhouse gases appears to be increasing these climate risks.

This paper briefly summarises available information on current climate risks in ESA, and then shows how these risks are expected to worsen by the middle and end of the century. It discusses the implications of these changing risks for agricultural investment and for prioritising the pursuit of more climate smart agricultural systems. A key theme underlying this discussion is that a better understanding of, and response to, current climate risks will provide a strong foundation for improving resilience to climate change in the future.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Climate Risks and Trends in Eastern and Southern Africa”

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Agribusiness Responses to Climate Risks: Implications for Improving Smallholder Resilience”

This literature review summarises theory and evidence of the contribution of conservation agriculture (CA) to resilence in the event of drought. A resilient agricultural system is able to continue to function and provide essential ecosystem services, such as food provisioning, following an external shock. If drought occurs, a more resilient system should o er higher productivity and food security. The review asks whether CA improves productivity and food security when rainfall is poor, and what aspects of CA contribute most to these benefits. The review will guide the design of a eld study on the impacts of CA after the 2015/16 El Nino drought in southern Africa.

Climate policy commonly carries an implicit assumption that incremental improvements in agricultural systems are adequate to make them resilient to climate change. In some cases, however, agricultural systems may cross certain environmental thresholds that require more transformational adaptation.

Governments and development agencies need to improve their understanding of climate thresholds and their preparedness for transformational adaptation. Climate smart agriculture frameworks should consider the piloting of strategies for transformational adaptation.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Assessing the contributions of conservation agriculture to building resilience to drought”