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This Literature Review is the rst step towards a comparative assessment of Weather Index Insurance (WII) in the agricultural sector in East and Southern Africa. The second step involves visits to four countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and Zambia) covered by the Climate Smart Agriculture Programme (Vuna) funded by DFID, which have weather index insurance programmes. The visits will allow collection of information on the recent performance of those programs and obtain the perceptions of key stakeholders on lessons learned, constraints, sustainability, and potential of those insurance programmes to address issues related to strengthening the resilience of agricultural systems to weather risk. The ndings from both stages will be summarised in an Evidence and Learning Report focussing on the determinants of success or failure of the programmes under implementation.

This paper summarizes the main ndings of the global experience on the implementation of WII specically the lessons learned on the mechanics of the index, pro tability, bundling, impacts, and potential role in climate change adaptation. It also discusses the challenges of current pilot projects in East and Southern Africa, wherever secondary information is available.

This paper presents a review of the commercial sustainability, profitability, challenges, impact, and potential contribution of weather index insurance (WII) products to improving resilience in weather-affected agricultural systems in developing countries. This is important given the continuing demand on governments to manage the considerable weather risk faced by smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa and other weather-exposed regions in developing economies.

This assessment has been developed in a two-step process. First, a literature review was conducted summarising the global experience in developing weather index insurance programmes. Second, we conducted a field investigation designed to extract a more detailed understanding of whether the results of recently launched WII pilots in Sub-Saharan Africa (in Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) are in line with the global experience.

Based on the Vuna report “Comparative Assessment of Selected Agricultural Weather Index Insurance Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa,” by Carlos E. Arce (August 2016).

Effective scaling up is a key measure of success for an innovation or intervention. A new approach is typically tested in a pilot project that has limited reach. With monitoring and evaluation (M&E), the lessons learned from the pilot can be used to scale up the model to create larger socioeconomic and developmental impacts. The decision to scale up, however, is often made with incomplete information. Given the high cost of scaling up, it is important for governments and development partners to carefully decide which innovations are ready for further investment. A good understanding of the scaling-up process and a framework for analysing scalability is critical for informed decision-making.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Scaling Up and Scalability: Concepts, Frameworks and Assessment,” by Pooniah Anandajayasekeram

Crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are typically less than half of yields in the developed world. With growing populations, and with climate change already beginning to put downward pressure on crop yields, intervention is urgently needed to enable farmers in SSA to produce more food. A key first step is to ensure that farmers have greater, and more reliable, access to high-quality seed of the modern varieties of climate smart crops that will best equip them to both feed themselves and produce food for barter or sale.

In many cases, breeding work for new varieties has been done. Farmers, however, are unaware of the new varieties, or seed of these varieties is not reaching them at meaningful levels. As a result, potential farmer yield and overall production levels for the target crops are not realised. The opportunity cost associated with this is significant and, without intervention, will grow as the effects of climate change increase.

- Drought is the single greatest climate risk faced by most farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa. In discussions of climate risk, it is crucial to distinguish between meteorological drought (lower-than-average annual or seasonal rainfall) and agricultural drought (insufficient water at critical stages of crop growth).

Global climate change models do a poor job predicting either type of drought (or flooding), and there appears to be little relationship between drought and rising levels of greenhouse gases. Drought and flooding are more closely correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which appear to predate global warming.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Agricultural Drought and Climate Smart Agriculture”

Agricultural production in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) is broadly characterised by high climate risks. Rainfall is variable in timing, amount, and intensity. Both drought and flooding are common. These challenges are magnified by the fact that the majority of farmers in this region face severe poverty, resource constraints, and food insecurity. More than 90% of these farmers are dependent on rainfed production. The rise in global greenhouse gases appears to be increasing these climate risks.

This paper briefly summarises available information on current climate risks in ESA, and then shows how these risks are expected to worsen by the middle and end of the century. It discusses the implications of these changing risks for agricultural investment and for prioritising the pursuit of more climate smart agricultural systems. A key theme underlying this discussion is that a better understanding of, and response to, current climate risks will provide a strong foundation for improving resilience to climate change in the future.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Climate Risks and Trends in Eastern and Southern Africa”