Gender Marker 2

In Zimbabwe, the frequency and length of dry spells during the rainy season have increased in recent years—the consequences of which include increased heat and water stress on natural ecosystems, agricultural crops and livestock, which ultimately affects agriculture communities that depend on agro-based livelihoods negatively. In addition, Zimbabwe continues to use an agro-ecological map from 1960 which divides the country into five agro-ecological regions, in spite of the fact that some of these natural regions may have changed over time. This poses a threat to agriculture, economic growth and development as the climate continues to change.

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems (Figure TS.1). The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential  benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation.

In this chapter, case studies are used as examples of how to gain a better understanding of the risks posed by extreme weather and climate-related events while identifying lessons and best practices from past responses to such occurrences. Using the information in Chapters 1 to 8, it was possible to focus on particular examples to reflect the needs of the whole Special Report. The chosen case studies are illustrative of an important range of disaster risk reduction, disaster risk management, and climate change adaptation issues. They are grouped to examine representative types of extreme events, vulnerable regions, and methodological approaches.

This chapter focuses on the implications of changing climate extremes for development, and considers how disaster risk management and climate change adaptation together can contribute to a sustainable and resilient future. Changes in the frequency, timing, magnitude, and characteristics of extreme events pose challenges to the goals of reducing disaster risk and vulnerability, both in the present and in the future. Enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to cope with, adapt to, and shape change is central to building sustainable and resilient development pathways in the face of climate change. The concept for social-ecological systems recognizes the interdependence of social and ecological factors in the generation and management of risk, as well as in the pursuit of sustainable development. Despite 20 years on the policy agenda, sustainable development remains contested and elusive (Hopwood et al., 2005). However, within the context of climate change, it is becoming increasingly clear that the sustainability of humans on the Earth is closely linked to resilient social-ecological systems, which is influenced by social institutions, human agency, and human capabilities (Pelling, 2003; Bohle et al., 2009; Adger et al., 2011).

This chapter assesses how countries are managing current and projected disaster risks, given knowledge of how risks are changing with observations and projections of weather and climate extremes, vulnerability and exposure, and impacts. It focuses on the design of national systems for managing such risks, the roles played by actors involved in the system, and the functions they perform, acknowledging that complementary  actions to manage risks are also taken at local and international level.

Disasters occur first at the local level and affect local people. These localized impacts can then cascade to have national and international ramifications. As a result, the responsibility for managing such risks requires the linkage of local, national, and global scales. Some disaster risk management options are bottom-up strategies, designed by and for local places, while other management options are products of global negotiations that are then implemented through national institutions to local levels. Institutions, actors, governance, and geographic units of analysis are not uniform across these scales. Even within each scale there are differences. While some communities are able to cope with disaster risks, others have limited disaster resilience and capacity to cope with present disaster risk let alone adapt to climate variability and extremes. This is the topic of this chapter: to present evidence on where disasters are experienced, how disaster risks are managed at present, and the variability in coping mechanisms and capacity in the face of climate variability and change, all from the perspective of local places and local actors.

The chapter explores three themes:

• how disaster risks are managed at present;
• how the impact of climate extremes threatens human security at the local level;
• and the role of scale and context in shaping variability in vulnerability, coping, adaptive capacity, and the management of disaster risks and climate extremes at the local level.

Many climate change adaptation efforts aim to address the implications of potential changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather and climate events that affect the risk of extreme impacts on human society. That risk is determined not only by the climate and weather events (the hazards) but also by the exposure and vulnerability to these hazards. Therefore, effective adaptation and disaster risk management strategies and practices also depend on a rigorous understanding of the dimensions of exposure and vulnerability, as well as a proper assessment of changes in those dimensions. This chapter aims to provide that understanding and assessment, by further detailing the determinants of risk as presented in Chapter 1.

Resumo para Decisores (RPD) (p.3)

A contribuicao do Grupo de Trabalho I para o Quinto Relatorio de Avaliacao do IPCC (AR5) considera novas evidencias das alteracoes climaticas com base em muitas analises cientificas independentes a partir de observacoes do sistema climatico, registos do paleoclima, estudos teoricos de processos climaticos e simulacoes utilizando modelos climaticos. Ele baseia-se na contribuicao do Grupo de Trabalho I para o Quarto Relatorio de Avaliacao do IPCC (AR4), e incorpora novas descobertas de pesquisas posteriores. Como um componente do quinto ciclo de avaliacao, o Relatorio Especial IPCC sobre a Gestao dos Riscos de Eventos Extremos e Desastres para o Avanco da Adaptacao as Alteracoes Climaticas (SREX) e uma base importante para as informacoes sobre a mudanca meteorologica e climas extremos. Este Resumo para Decisores (RPD) segue a estrutura do relatorio do Grupo de Trabalho I. A narrativa e apoiada por uma serie de conclusoes destacadas abrangentes que, em conjunto, apresentam um resumo conciso. As seccoes principais sao introduzidas por um breve paragrafo em italico, o qual descreve a base metodologica da avaliacao.

Resumo Tecnico (RT) (p.33)

O principal objetivo deste Resumo Tecnico (RT) e fornecer a ligacao entre a avaliacao completa das multiplas linhas de evidencia independente apresentadas nos 14 capitulos do relatorio principal e o resumo altamente condensado preparado como o Resumo para Decisores (RPD) do WGI. O Resumo Tecnico serve, assim, como ponto de partida para aqueles leitores que procuram a informacao completa sobre topicos mais especificos abrangidos por esta avaliacao. Esta finalidade e facilitada pela inclusao de indicadores para os capitulos e seccoes  onde pode ser encontrada a avaliacao completa. Topicos relacionados com politicas, que abrangem muitos capitulos e envolvem muitos processos interligados no sistema climatico, sao apresentados aqui como Elementos de Foco Tematico (EFT), permitindo um rapido acesso a esta informacao.

Perguntas Frequentes (FAQ) (p.119)

Glossario (p.185)

Este glossário define alguns termos específicos tal como os Autores Principais pretendem que sejam interpretados no contexto do presente relatório.

Explore terms that are used in the report to better understand key concepts and the meaning behind how terms are used.

The interactions of climate change and climate responses with sustainable development including sustainable development impacts at 1.5C and 2C, the synergies and tradeoffs of mitigation and adaptation with the Sustainable Development Goals/SDGs, and the possibilities for sustainable and equitable low carbon, climate resilient development pathways.

This chapter takes sustainable development as the starting point and focus for analysis. It considers the broad and multifaceted bi-directional interplay between sustainable development, including its focus on eradicating poverty and reducing inequality in their multidimensional aspects, and climate actions in a 1.5°C warmer world. These fundamental connections are embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The chapter also examines synergies and trade-offs of adaptation and mitigation options with sustainable development and the SDGs and offers insights into possible pathways, especially climate-resilient development pathways towards a 1.5°C warmer world.