Agricultural production in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) is broadly characterised by high climate risks. Rainfall is variable in timing, amount, and intensity. Both drought and flooding are common. These challenges are magnified by the fact that the majority of farmers in this region face severe poverty, resource constraints, and food insecurity. More than 90% of these farmers are dependent on rainfed production. The rise in global greenhouse gases appears to be increasing these climate risks.
This paper briefly summarises available information on current climate risks in ESA, and then shows how these risks are expected to worsen by the middle and end of the century. It discusses the implications of these changing risks for agricultural investment and for prioritising the pursuit of more climate smart agricultural systems. A key theme underlying this discussion is that a better understanding of, and response to, current climate risks will provide a strong foundation for improving resilience to climate change in the future.
Agricultural production in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) is broadly characterised by high climate risks. Rainfall is variable in timing, amount, and intensity. Both drought and flooding are common. These challenges are magnified by the fact that the majority of farmers in this region face severe poverty, resource constraints, and food insecurity. More than 90% of these farmers are dependent on rainfed production. The rise in global greenhouse gases appears to be increasing these climate risks.
This paper briefly summarises available information on current climate risks in ESA, and then shows how these risks are expected to worsen by the middle and end of the century. It discusses the implications of these changing risks for agricultural investment and for prioritising the pursuit of more climate smart agricultural systems. A key theme underlying this discussion is that a better understanding of, and response to, current climate risks will provide a strong foundation for improving resilience to climate change in the future.
Mutamba, Manyewu. 2016. Climate Risks and Trends in Eastern and Southern Africa. Vuna Research Report. Pretoria: Vuna. Online: http://www.vuna-africa.com
This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Agribusiness Responses to Climate Risks: Implications for Improving Smallholder Resilience”
This literature review summarises theory and evidence of the contribution of conservation agriculture (CA) to resilence in the event of drought. A resilient agricultural system is able to continue to function and provide essential ecosystem services, such as food provisioning, following an external shock. If drought occurs, a more resilient system should o er higher productivity and food security. The review asks whether CA improves productivity and food security when rainfall is poor, and what aspects of CA contribute most to these benefits. The review will guide the design of a eld study on the impacts of CA after the 2015/16 El Nino drought in southern Africa.
Brooks, Nick. 2016. Transformational Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts, Examples, and Relevance for Agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pretoria: Vuna. Online: http://www.vuna-africa.com
Climate policy commonly carries an implicit assumption that incremental improvements in agricultural systems are adequate to make them resilient to climate change. In some cases, however, agricultural systems may cross certain environmental thresholds that require more transformational adaptation.
Governments and development agencies need to improve their understanding of climate thresholds and their preparedness for transformational adaptation. Climate smart agriculture frameworks should consider the piloting of strategies for transformational adaptation.
Brooks, Nick. 2016. Transformational Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts, Examples, and Relevance for Agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pretoria: Vuna. Online: http://www.vuna-africa.com
This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Assessing the contributions of conservation agriculture to building resilience to drought”
“Assessing the contributions of conservation agriculture to building resilience to drought” by Kizito Mazvimavi (February 2017). Online: http://www.vuna-africa.com
This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Transformational Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts, Examples, and Relevance for Agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa,
“Transformational Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts, Examples, and Relevance for Agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa,” by Nick Brooks (November 2016). Online: http://www.vuna-africa.com
Climate policy commonly carries an implicit assumption that incremental improvements in agricultural systems are adequate to make them resilient to climate change. In some cases, however, agricultural systems may cross certain environmental thresholds that require more transformational adaptation. Governments and development agencies need to improve their understanding of climate thresholds and their preparedness for transformational adaptation. Climate smart agriculture frameworks should consider the piloting of strategies for transformational adaptation.
Brooks, Nick. 2016. Transformational Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts, Examples, and Relevance for Agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pretoria: Vuna. Online: http://www.vuna-africa.com