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Drought is the single greatest climate risk faced by most farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa. In discussions of climate risk, it is crucial to distinguish between meteorological drought (lower-than-average annual or seasonal rainfall) and agricultural drought (insufficient water at critical stages of crop growth). Global climate change models do a poor job predicting either type of drought (or flooding), and there appears to be little relationship between drought and rising levels of greenhouse gases. Drought and flooding are more closely correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which appear to predate global warming.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Agricultural Drought and Climate Smart Agriculture”

Agricultural production in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) is broadly characterised by high climate risks. Rainfall is variable in timing, amount, and intensity. Both drought and flooding are common. These challenges are magnified by the fact that the majority of farmers in this region face severe poverty, resource constraints, and food insecurity. More than 90% of these farmers are dependent on rainfed production. The rise in global greenhouse gases appears to be increasing these climate risks.

This paper briefly summarises available information on current climate risks in ESA, and then shows how these risks are expected to worsen by the middle and end of the century. It discusses the implications of these changing risks for agricultural investment and for prioritising the pursuit of more climate smart agricultural systems. A key theme underlying this discussion is that a better understanding of, and response to, current climate risks will provide a strong foundation for improving resilience to climate change in the future.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Climate Risks and Trends in Eastern and Southern Africa”

This study examines whether agribusiness firms are helping to improve the climate resilience of the smallholder farmers with whom they work. After reviewing the relevant literature, the study analyses case studies in three countries with relatively larger agribusiness sectors: Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Eastern and Southern Africa have been experiencing rising temperatures and high levels of rainfall variability. There is a significant amount of uncertainty in the literature on whether some of these climate risks, such as changes in precipitation, are caused by natural factors or by rising levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. What is clear, however, is that climate risks are profoundly affecting the agricultural sector. Small-scale farmers face food insecurity, price volatility, and reduced incentives to expand their production of high-value commercial crops. Similarly, the agribusinesses anchoring these value chains face higher investment and trading risks. Experts believe that the resilience of the sector needs to be strengthened.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Agribusiness Responses to Climate Risks: Implications for Improving Smallholder Resilience”

Climate policy commonly carries an implicit assumption that incremental improvements in agricultural systems are adequate to make them resilient to climate change. In some cases, however, agricultural systems may cross certain environmental thresholds that require more transformational adaptation. Governments and development agencies need to improve their understanding of climate thresholds and their preparedness for transformational adaptation. Climate smart agriculture frameworks should consider the piloting of strategies for transformational adaptation.

This information brief highlights key findings in the Vuna report “Assessing the contributions of conservation agriculture to building resilience to drought”

This literature review summarises theory and evidence of the contribution of conservation agriculture (CA) to resilence in the event of drought. A resilient agricultural system is able to continue to function and provide essential ecosystem services, such as food provisioning, following an external shock. If drought occurs, a more resilient system should o er higher productivity and food security. The review asks whether CA improves productivity and food security when rainfall is poor, and what aspects of CA contribute most to these benefits. The review will guide the design of a eld study on the impacts of CA after the 2015/16 El Nino drought in southern Africa.

- This paper presents a review of the commercial sustainability, profitability, challenges, impact, and potential contribution of weather index insurance (WII) products to improving resilience in weather-affected agricultural systems in developing countries. This is important given the continuing demand on governments to manage the considerable weather risk faced by smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa and other weather-exposed regions in developing economies.

This assessment has been developed in a two-step process. First, a literature review was conducted summarising the global experience in developing weather index insurance programmes. Second, we conducted a field investigation designed to extract a more detailed understanding of whether the results of recently launched WII pilots in Sub-Saharan Africa (in Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) are in line with the global experience.